Bob’s Journal 5/29

International Stocks Continue to Leap Ahead

Many investors are heartened by how U.S. stock prices bounced higher each time higher tariffs were postponed or modified. But U.S. equities still are laggards this year.

International equities started 2025 by surging ahead of U.S. counterparts, marking a small reversal in the exceptional performance of U.S stocks since the financial crisis. Both international and U.S. stocks fell sharply after President Donald J. Trump made his announcement in April of significant tariffs on what he called Liberation Day.

The subsequent collapse in stock and bond prices caused President Trump to delay implementation of the tariffs and pursue negotiations with countries around the world.

Stocks fell again last week after the President said negotiations weren’t progressing fast enough and he would impose 50% tariffs on all goods from the European Union on July 1. Over the weekend, those tariffs were delayed until at least July 9, and that caused U.S. stock prices to recover some ground.

U.S. stocks rose again this week after European officials said trade talks would be on a “fast track.”

While U.S. stocks gained each time tariffs were delayed or reduced, international stock investors were bigger beneficiaries.

The S&P 500 index was down 0.89% for 2025 as of Friday’s close. The Nasdaq 100 lost 0.24%, and the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies declined 8.12%.

But the broad-based iShares MSCI EAFE Index, which excludes U.S. stocks, was up 16.44% so far in 2025.

Canada is up 10.27%. Germany gained 29.67%, while Italy rose 30.56%. The United Kingdom notched a 17.64% rally while France bounced 18.17% higher.

Japan is a bit of a laggard with only an 8.84% gain.

While U.S. stock indexes have yet to return to their 2025 highs, each of the other major country indexes reached new highs sometime in the last two weeks.

International stocks sell at attractive valuations when compared to U.S. stocks. A shift of some investment capital from the United States to other equity markets probably would be happening without the tariff drama.

In addition, the United States is seen as a less safe place for capital because of the trade policy volatility and other geopolitical issues.

It also appears that many countries, especially in Europe, are changing domestic policies to make their economies more competitive and attractive. They’re seeking other trade partners and taking other actions to make them less reliant on the United States.

All these factors are pushing prices of international stocks higher and holding back U.S. stock prices.

Retirees are More Worried

Retirees are more concerned about key challenges than they were a year ago and, in general, are more worried about their retirement financial security, according to the 2025 “Living in Retirement” survey from Schroders Investment Management.

About 70% of retirees are at least slightly concerned about outliving their assets.

Inflation is a major reason retirees worry about their financial security. A significant majority of those surveyed said inflation is reducing the value of their assets and income more than they anticipated.

Related to that, 45% said their retirement expenses are higher than they expected, and 84% said they want better ways to protect their savings from inflation.

Medical expenses are another major concern with 86% saying medical expenses are higher than they expected and 58% reporting that they expected Medicare would cover more of their medical costs.

Only 40% of the retirees are confident they have saved enough money for retirement.

Those results are consistent with the 2025 Annual Retirement Study from the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement.

The annual report found there’s been a steady decline since 2020 in the percentage of retirees who are confident they can support their lifestyles in retirement. In 2025, only 61% said they were confident, compared to 83% in 2020.

Both surveys found that a large percentage of retirees don’t have formal retirement plans and don’t work with financial advisors.

Survey respondents say they don’t know how much money they need for retirement and don’t know how to turn their retirement savings into reliable retirement income.

The surveys also find that many retirees worry about things they can’t control or influence, such as the investment markets, inflation and government policies.

Instead, they should focus on the factors they can control.

The key issues of retirement remain the same, though the details of the solutions change over time.

Retirees need a plan to convert their retirement savings into lifetime income or cash flow.

For many, the best plan is to have enough guaranteed lifetime income from Social Security, pensions and annuities to ensure regular expenses can be paid.

Retirees also need a spending plan for the rest of their investment assets that ensures the assets aren’t depleted. The spending plan should adjust annual spending based on inflation and investment returns.

Retirees also need a medical insurance plan, with Medicare as the foundation, that minimizes surprises and out-of-pocket spending.

I discuss these issues and others regularly in Retirement Watch and in my books so that you won’t be among the retirees who worry about their lifetime financial security and independence.

Who Owns Your Medicare Insurer or Provider?

Ownership of major Medicare providers and insurers has changed over the years, and that could affect your medical care.

Private equity firms purchased a number of medical insurance firms and providers over the years and changed some of their policies.

Some analysts and members of the medical profession say ownership by private equity firms has reduced the quality of care in order to generate higher returns for the investment firms, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Among the drawbacks, say the critics, are reduced staffing, hiring staff with less training and experience and providing less supervision of staff.

Some critics also say that private equity firm ownership increases the cost of medical care.

An insurer or other provider owned by private equity could be more likely to deny coverage of care and require more care to be approved in order to be covered.

A major complaint against Medicare Advantage plans in recent years is that coverage of care is denied more often.

Some critics also say Medicare is being overcharged because some Advantage plans use the billing system to charge more for treatment.

There are arguments in favor of private equity firms owning Medicare Advantage plans and other medical providers. The firms can improve data processing systems and introduce management practices that make the medical system more efficient. They also provide capital that can improve facilities.

Before joining a Medicare Advantage plan or choosing any other medical provider, you might want to find out who owns it and determine if that might affect the cost or quality of your medical care.

The Data

The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board surged 12.3 points in May to 98.0 from 85.7 in April, ending five consecutive months of declines.

Most of the increase was in the Expectations Index, which increased 17.4 points to 72.8. But that index still remained below 80, which typically precedes a recession.

The PMI Manufacturing Flash Index for the first half of May was 52.3, an improvement from 50.2 at the end of April.

The PMI Services Flash Index for the first half of May rose to 52.3 from 50.8 at the end of April.

The PMI Composite Flash Index was 52.1 in mid-May, an increase from 50.6 at the end of April.

Existing home sales declined 0.5% in April after falling 5.9% in March, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The number of existing home sales in April was the lowest in seven months.

A statement from NAR said existing home sales have been around 75% of pre-pandemic levels for the last three years.

New home sales surged 10.9% in April following a 2.6% increase in March. The April increase was the highest since August 2022 and brought total new home sales to their highest level since February 2022.

Home prices increased 1.1% in March after rising 0.7% in February, according to the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The 12-month increase in the index was 4.1% through March and 4.5% through February.

The House Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency fell 0.1% in March after being unchanged in February. The 12-month increase was 3.7% through March and 3.9% through February.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -10 in May from -5 in April.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved to -15.3 in May from -35.8 in April.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was -9 in May compared to -13 in April.

Durable goods orders declined 6.3% in April after rising 7.6% in March. A large portion of the April decline was in aircraft orders.

A good proxy for business investment is durable goods orders minus defense and transportation orders. That metric fell 1.3% in April after rising 0.3% in March.

New unemployment claims decreased by 2,000 to 227,000 in the latest week.

Continuing claims, which lag a week behind new claims, increased to 1.903 million from 1.867 million.

The Markets

The S&P 500 lost 0.29% for the week ended with Tuesday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.73%. The Russell 2000 dropped 0.66%. The All-Country World Index (excluding U.S. stocks) gained 0.57%. Emerging market equities declined 0.41%.

Long-term treasuries rose 0.35% for the week. Investment-grade bonds increased 0.37%. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) added 0.13%. High-yield bonds gained 0.11%.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar declined 0.33%.

Energy-based commodities fell 1.15%. Broader-based commodities lost 0.35%. Gold advanced 0.31%.

Bob’s News & Updates

A recent review on amazon.com of my latest book said, “Carlson is a unique national Asset while alive! Get the book, dude!” Look for “Retirement Watch: The Essential Guide to Retiring in the 2020s” (Regnery Capital: 2023) at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, booksamillion.com, and regnery.com.

My previous book, “Where’s My Money: Secrets to Getting the Most out of Your Social Security,” is receiving mostly five-star reviews on Amazon for telling you clearly what your benefit options are in different situations and how to determine the best choice for you. You can find it on amazon.com or Regnery.com.

The number of regular viewers for my Retirement Watch Spotlight Series continues to increase. You should sign up because I make in-depth presentations of key retirement finance topics. You can watch these online seminars from the comfort of your home or office at times you choose. To learn more about my new Spotlight Series, click here.

A recent five-star review of my book, “The New Rules of Retirement” on amazon.com said, “A complete retirement guide! One of the best books on this topic!” Click for more details about the revised edition of “The New Rules of Retirement.”

If you’re interested in my books, check my amazon.com author’s page.

I’m a senior contributor to the Forbes.com blog. You can view my contributor page here.