Retirement Watch Weekly
Another Reason to Ignore Stock Market Forecasts
Late each year and early the following year, the economists and analysts air out their forecasts for the coming year. Each year, almost all the stock market forecasts are for returns in the high single digits (8% to 10%). That’s the long-term average annualized return. The funny thing is, these forecasts are way off the […]
More Legal Rights for 401(k) Members
Trial attorneys have been suing 401(k) plans in recent years for not giving participants good deals. The Supreme Court handed another defeat to the 401(k) plans, finding that the statute of limitations is renewed each time the plan’s board reviews investment choices. And a plan can be sued for a high-cost or high-risk investment option […]
Forecasting Retirement Spending Updated
A researcher at Morningstar recently received an award for an article that appears to be consistent with what I’ve been writing for years. Most retirement plans forecast spending incorrectly. They take a starting spending level that usually is an arbitrary percentage of pre-retirement income. Then they assume the spending increases each year at the same […]
Aging and Medical Care
The medical system doesn’t treat aging people well, especially when they are in hospitals, according to several recent books by medical doctors. This article discusses several of the books and explains why older Americans don’t receive good medical care unless their children or others who care about them are heavily involved in the care process. […]
Picking a Winning Mutual Fund
This post discusses a recent research paper that identifies a unique way to select a mutual fund that is likely to outperform benchmarks and competitors. Its thesis is that mutual fund companies know more about the quality of their managers than we do. So, demotion and promotion decisions by fund firms tell us who are […]
Ending of the Super Bull Market
Bill Gross, now of Janus Capital, writes in his latest monthly essay on the end of the credit supercycle that propelled investment returns since 1981. He cites other successful investors who also have stated this view recently. All agree that investors should be looking forward to lower average returns in coming years than have been […]
Savings Rates and 401(k)s
Over the years economists discovered that people would save more for retirement if 401(k) plans set a default initial savings rate instead of providing there would be no savings rate unless the employee selected one. There’s a lot of inertia in people. Many people will leave their contribution rate at the default, because they don’t […]
Small Number of Drugs Are Most of Medicare’s Cost
When people dig into the data on medical spending, especially government’s share of the spending, they always reach one conclusion. A relatively small number of people consume most of the medical care in this country. Most people are relatively healthy, don’t use much medical care, and don’t take many drugs. But people with chronic conditions […]
