Social Security
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More on Stock Market Valuation – The Shiller PE Ratio / CAPE Ratio
I’ve been covering the recent debate about how high stock market valuations are with special attention to the Shiller P-E ratio, also known as the CAPE (cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio). The ratio uses 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings instead of just one year’s earnings to value the stock market. Advocates believe that historically it’s been very good at […]
A Bullish (But Not Too Bullish) Case for the Stock Market
For some time now I’ve been linking to arguments by stock bulls. I do this partly because my recommended portfolios have reasonable stock positions and partly because bearish arguments are easy too find and are overexposed. Investors need to see the opposing arguments. So, here’s a summary of bullish arguments from Barry Ritholz. As my […]
The Bullish Case for the Stock Market
It’s remarkably easy to find the case for selling stocks. It seems it’s always easy to make a bearish case, and perhaps that is why there are so many bearish newsletters. It’s easy to write that bearish marketing copy. So, here’s a compilation of bullish arguments. It points out, for example, that a year of […]
Against Efficient Market Theory
The debate continues between efficient market theorists and those who are less sure about market efficiency, between passive or index investors and active investors. It’s easy to find support for the efficient market/passive investing side. They now dominate the academic and financial media worlds. Here’s an interesting essay by someone who identifies himself as a […]
Are Stocks Overvalued?
The U.S. stocks indexes are about 150% or more above their lows of 2009. That recovery is increasing the number of people worrying that stocks are too highly valued or even in a bubble with two 50% or greater declines occurring since 2000, people are more on the lookout for big declines than they were […]
Year-End Tax Planning for 2013-2014
We can do real year-end tax planning this year. In the last few years, year-end planning has been difficult because so many provisions of the law were set to expire at the end of each year, and Congress worked on the law through the holiday seasons. But with most provisions of the tax law settled […]
Taking a Financial Health Day
Most of you are familiar with the concept of a mental health day, when a person takes a day off from work to relax and recharge. Most of us need a financial health day to increase our financial independence and well-being. There are many relatively simple, easy steps people need to take to improve their […]
Tarnishing the Efficient Market Theory
You’ll find lots of entertaining and enlightening things in the latest quarterly shareholder letter from GMO, the large institutional investment manager. Co-Founder of the firm, Jeremy Grantham, enjoys criticizing this year’s co-winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, Eugene Fama, for the efficient market theory and all that follows from it. Grantham says the theory […]
