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In my book, Invest Like a Fox, Not Like a Hedgehog, I devote some space to the futility of using forecasts to make investment decisions. In that portion, I refer to the work of Philip Tetlock on political forecasting. For the latest on that work and an update on what Tetlock’s been doing, read this […]
Peter Diamond won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 2010 and was interviewed by The Washington Post over the weekend. The interview focused on Social Security reform and the federal debt problem. Diamondis believes that Social Security needs to be reformed to restore actuarial balance, and his preference is to reform it by a […]

Paying for medical care is the greatest fear of retirees and pre-retirees. Curiously, most of them aren’t doing much about it. The same surveys that report Americans are concerned about retirement medical expenses also report that only about 12% take account of medical costs in their retirement planning. More than half admit to knowing very […]
More and more people are interested in the right time to begin Social Security benefits, and we’ve been leaders at Retirement Watch informing people how to make that decision. You can obtain a copy of my report on the subject on the web site. Yet, many financial advisors still aren’t well-versed in the details of […]
Charts can be misleading, or they can tell you a lot. You have to study them carefully and understand why the data develops the way it did before concluding that the chart shows something meaningful. Otherwise, the chart is simply data mining. It might show a correlation between items but not necessarily a causation. The […]
Investors were lulled into a complacent state by the effects of the massive monetary injection by global central banks in late 2011. The new money turned around major global economies and boosted asset prices, especially equities and real estate. But that’s the past. The monetary expansion programs are winding down, and the global economy is […]
People make a lot mistakes in financial and retirement planning. One I see regularly is pre-retirees, of almost every age, say they won’t need or rely on Social Security. Many say they assume they won’t get anything from it. Routinely surveys of pre-retirees indicate that 30% or fewer expect SS to be a “major source […]
People continue to miss significant opportunities to maximize their Social Security retirement benefits. The problem is especially acute among married couples who don’t consider the long-term effects or don’t know the interaction between personal retirement benefits, spousal benefits, and survivor benefits. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime decision, but the benefits or drawbacks of the decision will last […]
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