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Too often, policymakers overlook the secondary or unintended effects of policies. I’m concerned about both the initial effects and potential secondary effects of recent policy changes. We’ve seen the cascading stock prices that are an initial effect of a tariff and trade war. A characteristic of the last few years was the exceptional performance of […]

Inflation is likely to rise quickly in the next few months, and that could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult situation much earlier than it anticipated. A number of inflation pressures are increasing. One example is rising demand for many goods and services as more vaccines are administered and economic activity increases. That puts […]
It’s official. The Federal Reserve re-turned to the monetary policies of the World War II years and is asking Congress to resurrect the fiscal policies of that period. At the end of August, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed’s policy for the long term is to keep interest rates very low and ensure the […]
The technology sector is changing in ways that investors need to know. Technology has been the leading sector in the economy for some time. The growth and innovation in the sector has been a significant contributor to overall economic growth. Developments in tech have benefited most sectors of the economy. Companies have become more competitive […]
Central banks might have to be very creative to maintain economic growth in the next few years. Global markets jumped Tuesday after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi indicated more monetary stimulus was likely on the way. Only a few months ago, the ECB president was talking about ending the bank’s asset purchase program […]
Are stocks really the highest-returning investment? Research argues that treasury bills outperform all but a handful of stocks over the long-term. Here’s the research, and here’s a review of it. Most common stocks do not outperform Treasury Bills. Fifty eight percent of common stocks have holding period returns less than those on one-month Treasuries over […]
The penny stock world often attracts investors looking for the big score. They’ve heard stories of investors buying Xerox or IBM when they first went public and were at very low prices. A few decades later early investors were multi-millionaires. But the penny stock world also is full of risky companies and some outright scams. […]
Here’s an interesting collection of recent research that helps explain why index investing often beats active stock selection. The bottom line is that in most years only a small number of stocks drive the indexes higher. Active managers are more likely not to own those stocks than indexes are. I’d add that value managers are […]
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