Stock Markets and the Economy
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The Headwinds to Growth Increase
Investment markets are saying everything is fine. They don’t have major worries about tariffs, the “one big, beautiful bill” (OBBB) in Congress or international tensions. By early June, U.S. stock indexes had recovered most of the losses that followed the Liberation Day tariff announcements. Returns for the calendar year were positive again, and the indexes […]
Headwinds Increase for the Economy, Markets
The good news is President Trump seems to be backing away from his most extreme tariff policies. The bad news is that damage has been inflicted, and he seems intent on maintaining a universal 10% tariff with higher tariffs on China and a few other countries. Of course, anything about this could change at any […]
The Fed Finally Pivots. How Long Will It Last? Investment and Economic Review
Fed officials say they want to bring rates down to normal or neutral levels as soon as they can, but events might be working against them. The Federal Reserve finally began reducing interest rates in September, several years after most investors thought they would. But how long will it be before the Fed has to […]
The Markets Are Looking Ahead
A lot changed after the Con- sumer Price Index (CPI) began sliding last spring, and those changes helped our portfolios. Since the June CPI data was re- leased, the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index and smaller company stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 In- dex, growth stocks and large compa- ny stocks. That’s a sharp reversal […]
Did the Fed Wait Too Long?
Tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates finally had their intended effects, slowing growth and reducing inflation. The question now is whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to reverse policies. While most analysts focus on Fed policies, productivity and an expanding labor force are the unsung heroes of the last couple of years. They […]
Lower Growth Suddenly Worries the Fed
The Federal Reserve, now worried about slow economic growth, shifted its focus from inflation to the labor market. The unique feature of the current economic cycle is growth wasn’t fueled by private sector borrowing. Instead, government borrowing and spending powered the economy. That’s why the rapid increase in interest rates beginning in 2022 didn’t trigger […]
Big Surprises Make Investors Reposition Their Portfolios
Recent economic data and policy changes caused investors to doubt the durability of economic growth and reposition their portfolios. Stock indexes tumbled while bonds rose in late July and early August. One trigger was the Employment Situation reports for July. The unemployment rate rose. The number of new jobs created was well below both expectations […]
The Fed Faces a New Dilemma
For the first time in years, the Federal Reserve faces twin risks and must decide which it wants to avoid more. Inflation was a very low risk for many years before it surged in 2022. It has been inching lower but remains above the Fed’s target. Inflation has been sticky because of solid economic growth, […]
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Warren Buffett
