Bob's Journal
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Do Weak Retail Sales Indicate a Problem with the Economy?
Do weak retail sales indicate a problem with the economy? They’re certainly a problem for retailers. Weak overall sales, plus competition from online retailers, are among trends causing a large number of retailers to file for bankruptcy. But does the recent weakness in retail sales foreshadow a problem with economic growth? The latest retail sales […]
Spotting Changes in the Global Economy
One of the first places to spot changes in the global economy is in the economic surprises index. The best-known economic surprises index is prepared by Citigroup. The index doesn’t track whether economic data is positive or negative, improving or declining. Instead, it tracks whether the data is better or worse than the expectations of […]
Markets Continue Negative Trend
The investment markets in March continued the negative trends of February. The biggest trend, of course, is negative returns for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 slid 2.74% in March, fell 7.81% from its Jan. 26 peak to wipe out January’s strong gains and now has a year-to-date loss of 1.00%. The Dow Jones […]
The Post-Crisis Inflation Mystery
Inflation probably is the most important, and puzzling, economic factor today. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining full employment while restraining inflation. With unemployment very low, the Fed’s primary focus is on inflation these days. The path of inflation, and the Fed’s expectations of that path, will determine how much the Fed […]
Trade Talk, Actions Roil The Markets
President Trump directed a lot of his attention so far in 2018 at trade policies, and the markets noticed. Trade policies were always a key part of the president’s campaign talking points and agenda, but they were in the background through the first year of the administration. A few modest moves on trade were taken, […]
Listening To The Markets
The markets are sending us interesting messages. A lot has happened in the markets so far in 2018. U.S. stocks had strong returns and record highs throughout January. That was followed by a brief correction and a rebound. Global markets generally have been correlated with the U.S. indexes, but there has been a lot of […]
The Changing S&P 500
The market rally the last few years has been uneven, and that’s led to technology stocks dominating the S&P 500. S&P doesn’t rebalance the S&P 500 index on a regular basis. It generally lets the market do that, as the weight of different stocks and especially sectors changes over time. Sometimes the changes can be […]
Bob’s Journal
Highlighting a Spectacular Earnings Season Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2017 ended last week, and it was an outstanding season. A key point to keep in mind is that analysts increased their estimate forecasts through the quarter as the economic data became stronger. In fact, the rate of forecast increases was the most […]
