Bob's Journal
Found 587 Articles.
Get access to our full article archive by subscribing to Retirement Watch and Retirement Watch Spotlight Series.
The Outlook for Earnings
What’s the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings and what does it mean for stocks? Earnings were in a recession, even while the economy grew, from 2014-2016. Earnings for most companies declined year-over-year during that period. Late in 2016, we finally saw positive and even robust earnings growth. Analysts generally expect such strong earnings growth to […]
Understanding the Latest Employment Reports
Last week’s Employment Situation reports disappointed some investors and analysts. They’re misinterpreting the data. The government reported only 138,000 new jobs created. Also, last month’s reported 211,000 new jobs were revised down to 174,000, well below the numbers of the past year, thus raising concerns among some observers about reduced growth. In addition, average hourly earnings increased […]
Sell in May and Go Away?
Investors who followed the old adage to sell in May and buy again in November missed some nice gains in the last month. The S&P 500 rose 1.40% for the month of May and is up 8.62% for the year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 0.71% for the month and 7.41% so […]
Investing and Political Uncertainty
How do you invest in a time of high political uncertainty and volatility? We had to deal with that issue several times in the recent past, and most investors handled it the wrong way. After months of very low volatility and what I’ve been calling complacency, investors had a wake-up call last week. A special […]
The Roots of Today’s Growth
Remember the global panic of early 2016? The recent economic growth and market strength had their roots there. You might remember that in late 2015, investors started to see warning signs in China. China’s stock markets had a very strong 2015, largely because regulators had changed the rules to allow more leveraged investing. As 2015 […]
Hard Data versus Anecdotes
There are significant inconsistencies between the major economic reports, and it’s important to resolve them. I’ve pointed to the inconsistencies several times in these weekly updates. Sentiment surveys and anecdotal reports have been extremely positive. The Small Business Optimism Index and consumer sentiment surveys surged to multi-year highs a few months ago. While they’re below […]
How Markets Fared in the First Third of 2017
We put the first third of 2017 behind us at the end of April and we now should take a look at how the different markets fared that month and so far this year. The big story was the U.S. dollar. You might remember that after the election in 2016, the dollar rose sharply. Investors […]
Politics Whipsaws the Markets
Interesting changes continue to occur in the markets, and they show the importance of balanced portfolios. Remember, after the election, the dollar and U.S. stocks rose. The rise in U.S. stocks was focused primarily in smaller, domestic-oriented companies. The larger U.S. companies with multinational activities suffered, while stocks of companies outside the United States also […]
