Bob's Journal
Found 587 Articles.
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The Dog That Didn’t Bark
What was a unique feature of the recent stock market sell- off? Give yourself a prize if you said the limited action in the bond market, especially high-yield and corporate bonds. High-yield bonds are correlated more with equities than with government bonds, so when stocks have a correction, there’s usually a jump in high-yield bond […]
It Looks Like a Typical Correction
The recent correction shook up investors, and that will be good for the markets in the coming months. Before the correction, stock indexes had been on an extended upward climb. The climb became very steep in January. Importantly, technical measures indicated stocks not only were overbought, but extremely overbought. That means the index was more […]
Finally, a Significant Market Decline
I didn’t mean to put a hex on the stock markets last week. In last Thursday’s Bob’s Journal, I wondered how investors would react to the next big decline in stocks. I pointed out that a decline of more than 500 points on the Dow would be only a 2% decline. However, such a decline […]
The Market Melt-Up
Stock indexes had an amazing start to 2018, so it shouldn’t be a surprise they closed January with consecutive down days. Before Jan. 30, the S&P 500 had 350 trading days without consecutive daily declines of 0.5% or more each. That’s a record by a wide margin. Fewer than a handful of such S&P 500 […]
Where the Real Action Is
Investors who are focused on U.S. stocks are missing a lot. It is true that U.S. stocks are off to one of the strongest starts ever to a calendar year. But savvy investors should be focusing elsewhere, specifically on the weakening U.S. dollar and the international stock markets. The dollar continues to be weak […]
Higher Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing Borrowing
Rising interest rates aren’t causing pain for the economy yet. Many people, including Federal Reserve officials, were worried when the Fed started raising interest rates. They weren’t sure growth would be sustained when the zero-interest-rate policy ended. But it’s so far, so good. In fact, one could argue that zero interest rates were holding back […]
The Yield Curve Warning Sign
There is a lot of misunderstanding about a key indicator of the economy and markets. The yield curve is attracting more and more attention. Most of the analysts drawing attention to the yield curve say it is giving or about to give a big warning to investors. I think they’re misreading the yield curve and […]
Evaluating the Aging Bull
After eight years of strong returns, is it time to consider selling U.S. stocks? Periods of strong returns make many investors nervous. Through 2017, we documented the extended periods of gains in the major market indexes without interruptions by significant declines. These periods without declines are at or near record lengths. The S&P 500, for […]
