Stock Markets and the Economy
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The Next Bear Market
It is time to plan for the next bear market and recession. I’m not predicting that either is imminent. In fact, the reliable lead indicators of recessions aren’t issuing any warning signs yet. The best time to plan for bear markets and recessions is when they don’t seem to be on the horizon. Most people […]
Be on the Lookout For the Next Change in Trends
Investors need to be wary of the “recency effect,” which regularly costs people a lot of money. Under the recency effect, people tend to remember best the facts and ideas to which they’ve most recently been exposed. In investing and economics, people believe the future will be very similar to the recent past. It’s a […]
The Outlook for Earnings
What’s the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings and what does it mean for stocks? Earnings were in a recession, even while the economy grew, from 2014-2016. Earnings for most companies declined year-over-year during that period. Late in 2016, we finally saw positive and even robust earnings growth. Analysts generally expect such strong earnings growth to […]
Understanding the Latest Employment Reports
Last week’s Employment Situation reports disappointed some investors and analysts. They’re misinterpreting the data. The government reported only 138,000 new jobs created. Also, last month’s reported 211,000 new jobs were revised down to 174,000, well below the numbers of the past year, thus raising concerns among some observers about reduced growth. In addition, average hourly earnings increased […]
Sell in May and Go Away?
Investors who followed the old adage to sell in May and buy again in November missed some nice gains in the last month. The S&P 500 rose 1.40% for the month of May and is up 8.62% for the year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 0.71% for the month and 7.41% so […]
Managing Today’s Overlooked Risks
Investors and markets have been calm and steady for a while. That’s generating some profits but means some risks are being overlooked or downplayed. The U.S. economy continues to grow. The low first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth didn’t reflect the real state of the economy. The bulk of the data reported during the quarter […]
The First Quarter Wrap
The first quarter closed last Friday but the markets were very different in March than earlier in the year. The change altered the overall performance of different assets for the quarter, since U.S. stocks didn’t do much in March. They took a break from the strong rally they had in January and February. But overseas […]
Wake Up Call or a Bump in the Road?
Since last November, many investors became comfortable with what has been called the Trump Trade. Now, they’re a little uneasy. The Trump Trade was to buy assets that seem likely to benefit from the proposed policies of the new Trump administration. The primary beneficiaries were U.S. stocks, especially stocks of companies with mostly domestic revenues. […]
529 College Saving Plans
Active versus Passive Investing
Art and Collectibles Investing
Asset Allocation
Bear Market
Bonds and Tips
Bull Markets
Cash Management
Commodities
Cryptocurrencies
Diversification
Dividend Investing
Endowment Investing
ETFs
Financial Crisis
Global Markets
Emerging Markets
Gold and Silver
Hedge Funds
Index Investing
Interest Rates and the Yield Curve
Investing for Children and Grandchildren
Investing Strategies
MLP's
Momentum Investing
Mutual Funds
Passive Investing
Portfolios
Real Estate Investing
Risk Management
Shiller
Smart Beta
Stock Market Bubbles
Stock Market Crash
Stock Market Votality
Stock Valuations
Stocks
Value Investing
Warren Buffett
