Stock Markets and the Economy
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Navigating an Improbable Year and Preparing for More Surprises to Come
Don’t fall into the extrapolation trap that snares most investors. Too many investors extrapo- late the recent past into the indefinite future. They believe whatever has happened in the economy and markets recently will continue to happen. Behavioral finance economists and psychologists call this “recency” bias. (I know most dictionaries don’t accept “recency” as a […]
Investments Tumble in October
I don’t know if the presidential election is affecting the stock market, but some analysts believe that’s the case. They also believe the stock market anticipates the election results. Their conclusion is that when the stock market rallies into election day, the incumbent party will win the election. When the market declines leading up to […]
Central Bankers Pushing on a String
October 27, 2016 Central Bankers Pushing on a String Investors are becoming complacent just at the time when they shouldn’t. As bankers ramped up quantitative easing (QE) after 2008, many investors remained cautious. Surveys showed investors holding large allocations to cash as QE pushed the prices of stocks, bonds, and other assets higher. Now, it […]
Finding the Short-Term Tailwinds
The long-term economic and market picture still isn’t an attractive one. Many shorter-term trends, however, are positive. Too many investors and analysts are missing opportunities because they are worried about the long-term, how the presidential election might affect markets and other noise. The things that really matter to markets are pointing to several opportunities. The […]
The Third Quarter Surprises Analysts — Again
The third quarter was another one full of surprises for those trying to anticipate the markets. Let’s take a look at what the major asset classes did during the quarter. Despite a lot of negative headlines and pessimistic analysts, stocks had another good quarter across the globe. The S&P 500 rose 3.78% for the quarter, […]
An Update on the Effects of Brexit
Do you remember Brexit? That was when a majority of those casting votes in the United Kingdom were in favor of leaving the European Union. The initial forecasts were that the vote would be both a short-term and a long-term disaster for the United Kingdom and Europe. Global markets for risk assets (stocks, commodities, real […]
When Diversification Doesn’t Work
September 15, 2016 When Diversification Doesn’t Work There are times when diversification doesn’t provide the protection investors want. We saw an example in the last week. All, or almost all, assets other than cash decline when real interest rates are rising faster than expected returns on other assets. This situation usually occurs when central […]
Central Banks Surprise Investors and Themselves
There are a lot of problems to worry about over the long term. For a considerable time, economic growth and investment returns are likely to be less than the long-term averages. Developed economies are burdened with excess debt in both the private and public sectors. Populations are aging in the developed world. Central banks are […]
529 College Saving Plans
Active versus Passive Investing
Art and Collectibles Investing
Asset Allocation
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Financial Crisis
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Interest Rates and the Yield Curve
Investing for Children and Grandchildren
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Shiller
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Stock Market Bubbles
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Stock Market Votality
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Warren Buffett
