Stock Markets and the Economy
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Weighing Positives and Negatives in Today’s Markets
Headwinds and tailwinds continue to tussle against each other, confusing the outlook for investment markets and the economy. For several years, synchronized global monetary expansion provided floors under stocks and the economy. But the Federal Reserve is now tightening monetary policy, and other central banks, with the exception of Japan’s, are preparing to follow suit. […]
The Fed’s Tighter Policies Are Starting to Bite
As the economy continues to generate positive economic data, investors should ponder what will happen when the one-time factors supporting the markets and economy fade. The Federal Reserve started to tighten monetary policy in 2015, but the economy continues to grow. That’s partly because it usually takes two years or so for a change in […]
Inflation and Cost Pressures under Control
Many people are worried about a jump in inflation, but I expect the forces that are currently constraining price increases to continue to do so. Recently, pressures for higher inflation have been fairly strong. Most inflation measures finally reached or topped the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% over 12 months. Businesses are reporting cost pressures […]
Explaining Rising Stock Markets in the Midst of a Tariff War
In the last week, many market watchers probably saw an apparent contradiction: U.S. stocks were on the rise despite a global trade war and various geopolitical tensions. Why, and how, could this be the happening? Explaining short-term changes in the markets is always difficult and risky, but I’m going to try. Financial engineering by American companies […]
Don’t Discount the Power of the Fed
Trade conflicts and the dollar appear to be moving markets, but don’t discount the power of the Fed. As the first half of 2018 draws to a close, let’s see how various factors played out during that time, starting with the overall stock market. Here, the major indexes started the year by hitting a series […]
Your Retirement Finance Week in Review
Inflation has been rising. Should the Federal Reserve be worried about it? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been rising steadily since early 2015. It recently settled in above 2%, and the headlines announced that the latest 12-month reading was at the highest level since 2011. Some Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have said […]
Tech Stocks Are the Talk of Wall Street
Either technology is taking over the economy, or the market is sending some warning signs about technology stocks. I wrote earlier this year about how technology’s share of the S&P 500 has been climbing the last few years because returns in technology stocks are much higher than the rest of the index’s sectors. Recently, the […]
The Dollar’s Recent Surge Is Unusual
The dollar has been soaring lately, and that has affected both the global markets and economy, as well as reflected recent occurrences. The moves in the dollar in the last few months are unusually large for a major currency. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index increased 4% since mid-April. The dollar had been trending steadily lower […]
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Warren Buffett
