Stock Markets and the Economy
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Will Fed Officials Continue to Drive Stock Prices Lower?
The October decline in stocks was triggered by hawkish messages from an array of Federal Reserve officials. The first remarks were from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said in an Oct. 3 interview on PBS that “we’re a long way from neutral” in monetary policy. Powell said the economy no longer needed the extremely low […]
Market Turmoil Offers Economic Insight
The recent stock market decline reveals a lot about the economy. Until the last few weeks, the lagging sectors in the stock market were the interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Joining them were low-quality companies, including those with the weakest balance sheets. Home builder stocks were some of the worst performers during that period, followed by utilities and […]
Making Plans as a Turning Point Approaches
The tumble in global markets that took hold in October was widespread, leaving few investments untainted. Because we strive to be diversified and hold assets with margins of safety, many of our positions held up better than the market indexes. We won’t need to clean house in our portfolios this month, because we haven’t been […]
Markets Are Reacting to Tighter Money
One of the best-returning periods ever for financial assets is ending. Beginning in 2009, global central banks pumped money into the markets in an attempt to boost economic growth by increasing wealth. It largely worked. A traditional balanced portfolio of 60% U.S. stocks and 40% U.S. bonds had one of its best nine-year periods ever. […]
It’s the Economy vs. the Fed
How long will economic growth increase in the face of the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy? Economic growth has increased despite the Fed’s actions because of tax cuts, reduced regulation and other factors. Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth exceeded 4%, shocking many economists. The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent […]
Data Provide Mixed Bag of News
Economic growth decelerated in August, but the economy still grew at a healthy rate. No one should be surprised about slower growth in August, because July’s economic data were among the strongest of the last two years. The reports for August activity were released in September, so now we can take a comprehensive look and […]
Economy Perseveres against Tighter Monetary Policy
For several years now, the economy has been resisting the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy. In 2015, the Fed stopped its quantitative easing program, and it has been increasing interest rates at a very slow rate ever since. The Fed also is letting the bonds and mortgages it bought mature and roll off the balance […]
Why Not to Use a Single Piece of Data
Investors recently were given another good reason why not to rely on one piece of data to make decisions. For years, we’ve been told that Americans weren’t saving enough money and that the savings rate was declining, even after incomes and asset prices recovered from the financial crisis. As it turns out, that was all […]
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Warren Buffett
