Stock Markets and the Economy
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The End Game Approaches: Investment and Economic Review
The Federal Reserve overreacted to the pandemic, dumping way too much liquidity into the economy. That released the inflation genie from its bottle, causing inflation to reach its highest levels in more than 40 years in 2022. Will the Fed overreact again and keep monetary policy tight until we have a serious recession? Or is […]
What First Quarter Earnings Reports Revealed About the Economy
Stock and bond markets are priced for an extremely optimistic outcome, but first-quarter earnings and recent economic data point to a different future. The futures markets indicate investors expect the Federal Reserve will expand the money supply and reduce interest rates rapidly starting this summer. Inflation is expected to retreat to the Fed’s 2% target […]
The Fed Is Fighting a Two-Front War
The Federal Reserve is fighting simultaneously for both price stability and financial stability. Because the Fed pumped too much money into the economy in the years before 2022, high inflation became self-sustaining, causing the Fed in 2022 to engage in perhaps its fastest and most aggressive monetary tightening ever. Negative effects of the tightening are […]
When Your Bank and Retirement Accounts Can Be Seized
The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank almost triggered the first use of the “bail-in” established in the Dodd-Frank financial regulation law enacted after the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The federal government prevented use of the provision and acted to protect large accounts of a number of Silicon Valley firms by declaring […]
Know the Safety Nets and Other Protections for Your Money
Bank failures are in the headlines again. Tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy or an approaching recession almost always lead to more bank failures. To avoid being caught in a failure, of course do what you can to avoid a high-risk bank or financial services company. But banks and other financial services firms carry risks that […]
Goldilocks vs. the Fed
A turn in the economy in early 2023 disrupted the plans of many investors and the Federal Reserve. As 2022 ended, investors were poised for inflation to hit the Fed’s 2% target without a recession and for the Fed to shift to an easy money policy by the second half of 2023. But the economy […]
Investors Are Anticipating Goldilocks’ Arrival
The markets are ignoring one of the prime investment rules: Don’t fight the Fed. Federal Reserve officials say they will have to maintain tight monetary policy considerably longer to bring inflation to the 2% target, even after the historically aggressive rate increases of 2022. Markets seem to disagree, while anticipating what some call a soft […]
How Long Will Labor Market, Corporate Earnings Hold Up?
In the next few months, we’ll learn how well household spending and corporate earnings hold up following the most aggressive monetary tightening in 50 years. The Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy more in 2022 than it and most investors expected. Higher household wealth and a very tight labor market fueled consumer spending and […]
529 College Saving Plans
Active versus Passive Investing
Art and Collectibles Investing
Asset Allocation
Bear Market
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Cryptocurrencies
Diversification
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Financial Crisis
Global Markets
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Interest Rates and the Yield Curve
Investing for Children and Grandchildren
Investing Strategies
MLP's
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Risk Management
Shiller
Smart Beta
Stock Market Bubbles
Stock Market Crash
Stock Market Votality
Stock Valuations
Stocks
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Warren Buffett
