Stock Markets and the Economy
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What Bond Yields Are Telling Investors
Bond yields have tumbled since late October while short-term interest rates barely budged. That tells us a lot about the markets and the economy. Short-term interest rates went from near zero in 2021 to more than 5.6% in October 2023, their most rapid rise in at least 40 years. Bond rates were slow to follow […]
The Economy Keeps Fighting the Fed, and Winning
The economy is growing at a solid rate despite the fastest tightening of monetary policy in 40 years. Don’t expect the growth rate to continue. At almost any other time, the rapid tightening of monetary policy the Federal Reserve engineered in 2022 and 2023 would have triggered a serious recession or, at a minimum, stalled […]
The End Game, The Lags, The Gap, The Fade and More: Investment and Economic Review
Is the Federal Reserve finished raising interest rates? Is it about to cut interest rates? Will the economy avoid a recession while inflation declines to the Fed’s target? In other words, are we about to live through the Goldilocks scenario? I address these questions and more in this month’s Retirement Watch Spotlight Series, my semiannual […]
Investors Realize the Fed Changed the Playbook
Investors finally are realizing the Federal Reserve changed its playbook. That’s why market interest rates rose in recent months even as Fed officials indicated the end of the tightening cycle was approaching. When the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) failed 25 years ago, it roiled the financial markets and Fed officials worried the effects […]
How The Bond Market Surprised Investors
The bond market caught investors unaware over the summer, and there’s probably more of that to come. Investors believed interest rates bottomed last November. Futures markets forecast that through 2023, the Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy, and interest rates would decline rapidly. Even as inflation remained above expectations and the Fed tightened policy, investors […]
Six Financial Surprises So Far in 2023
As often happens, 2023 has been filled with economic and financial surprises. Commodity prices have been unexpectedly weak for a couple of primary reasons. Economic growth in China lagged, which I’ll discuss shortly, reducing demand for commodities. Also, the war in Ukraine didn’t disrupt supplies as much as expected. Governments around the world and major […]
Markets Fight the Fed
The markets are fighting the Federal Re- serve, making the Fed’s job harder and increasing uncertainty about the economy and markets. Fed officials openly stated they’re serious about controlling inflation, and backed the words with action, rapidly raising interest rates and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. The more actions the Fed took, the more optimistic […]
Fed Policy Will Have to Stay Tight for A While
Many analysts are prematurely sounding “all clear” and declaring we’ve seen the worst effects of the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy. It is understandable. We haven’t had a full Fed tightening cycle in many years. Long-term factors kept a lid on inflation for about 20 years, allowing the Fed to ease policy whenever the economy […]
529 College Saving Plans
Active versus Passive Investing
Art and Collectibles Investing
Asset Allocation
Bear Market
Bonds and Tips
Bull Markets
Cash Management
Commodities
Cryptocurrencies
Diversification
Dividend Investing
Endowment Investing
ETFs
Financial Crisis
Global Markets
Emerging Markets
Gold and Silver
Hedge Funds
Index Investing
Interest Rates and the Yield Curve
Investing for Children and Grandchildren
Investing Strategies
MLP's
Momentum Investing
Mutual Funds
Passive Investing
Portfolios
Real Estate Investing
Risk Management
Shiller
Smart Beta
Stock Market Bubbles
Stock Market Crash
Stock Market Votality
Stock Valuations
Stocks
Value Investing
Warren Buffett
