Stock Markets and the Economy
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Where We Stand After Two Years of Higher Interest Rates
There have been a lot of surprises in the two-plus years since the Federal Reserve began its historic interest rate increases. Continue to expect the unexpected. In May 2022, the Fed finally realized, much too late, inflation wasn’t transient. It needed to act. In June 2022, the 12-month increase in the Consumer Price Index peaked […]
The Stumble in the Fed Pivot
Expectations about interest rates and inflation changed quite a bit in the first five months of 2024. In January, investors believed the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates at least six times, a move known as the Fed Pivot. By April, the consensus saw only two rate cuts, and a growing number of investors wondered […]
Markets Realize Rates Will Be Higher for Longer
Investors finally are accepting that the Federal Reserve is in a “forever war” against inflation. Beginning in early 2022, investors ignored strength in the economy and labor market and convinced themselves the Fed soon would bring interest rates back near zero. The furious stock and bond rally of November and December brought the yield on […]
Must-Take Retirement Finance Actions for the Rest of 2024
This is a unique year, and one important way to respond is to examine your retirement and tax plans now, instead of waiting until near the end of the year. Events are happening and are likely to occur that could greatly change your retirement finances. I review them and how you need to respond in […]
How Investors Undermine Their Forecasts
Investors have been on a roller coaster ride of their own creation for the last couple of years. Each time inflation cools and the economy slows, investors become ebullient. They conclude the Fed is about to cut interest rates rapidly and significantly. That anticipation of easy monetary policy leads to reduced interest rates and lifts […]
Investors Still Are Misreading the Fed
For at least 15 years, investors erred when anticipating the Federal Reserve’s actions, and they’ve done it again. Futures markets tell us what investors anticipate. In 2021 and early 2022, interest rate futures indicated the Fed would cut rates. Yet, in 2022, the Fed executed the fastest increase in interest rates in at least 40 […]
Do Boomers Have Too Much Invested in Stocks?
The stock market surge in late 2023 means stocks have become a larger percentage of the portfolios of many people, because most people don’t rebalance their portfolios after big market moves. Recently, economist David Rosenberg found that a record 80% of the U.S. stock market is owned by people ages 55 and older. Those factors […]
Investors Expect a Repeat of the 2010s
A replay of the last decade or so is priced into the markets, and that’s an aggressive posture. A burst of investor optimism in late 2023 pushed stock and bond prices well beyond economic fundamentals to reflect a widespread expectation that an ideal scenario will unfold over the next year. Investors expect inflation will return […]
529 College Saving Plans
Active versus Passive Investing
Art and Collectibles Investing
Asset Allocation
Bear Market
Bonds and Tips
Bull Markets
Cash Management
Commodities
Cryptocurrencies
Diversification
Dividend Investing
Endowment Investing
ETFs
Financial Crisis
Global Markets
Emerging Markets
Gold and Silver
Hedge Funds
Index Investing
Interest Rates and the Yield Curve
Investing for Children and Grandchildren
Investing Strategies
MLP's
Momentum Investing
Mutual Funds
Passive Investing
Portfolios
Real Estate Investing
Risk Management
Shiller
Smart Beta
Stock Market Bubbles
Stock Market Crash
Stock Market Votality
Stock Valuations
Stocks
Value Investing
Warren Buffett
