Stock Markets and the Economy
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The Fed Plays Chicken with Inflation
Investors seem to agree with the Federal Reserve that the surges in economic growth and inflation are temporary. I am skeptical. Market pricing indicates most investors expect the growth rate to decline, and that slower growth will reduce inflation. I believe the markets are underestimating the prospects for continued growth and inflation. Recent economic growth […]
What’s Happening in China and What it Means to Investors
China’s government has been busy over the last few months, and its actions have led to a steep sell-off in China’s stocks. The decline accelerated in August. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) declined 14.39% from its Feb. 17 peak through June 28. By Aug. 25, the fund was down 32.21% from its February high. […]
Riding the Wave of Growth and Inflation
The strong economic growth and inflation experienced recently are sustainable, and they’re being underestimated by investors and the Federal Reserve. Market prices indicate investors expect a quick return to the pre-pandemic combination of modest growth and low inflation. Fed officials repeatedly say that’s what they believe will happen. Forces supporting growth and inflation are in […]
Investors Start to Worry About the Fed
The stage is set for the second half of 2021 to deliver a strong, broad economic expansion, probably the best in a long time. There’s a strong foundation for sustained growth. Households improved their balance sheets during the pandemic, helped by stimulus payments and rising asset prices. Also, incomes are rising. Households, as a whole, […]
The Fed’s Changing Monetary Policy
The markets are changing as investors anticipate and worry about the Federal Reserve’s plan to remove some of the liquidity it pumped into the economy since March 2020. Liquidity provided by the Fed has been the main influence on the economy and investment markets since 2009. The Fed’s motivation has been to avoid a depression […]
Inflation Pressures Increase; Fed Says It Is Not Worried
Inflation continues to accelerate. How far and fast it rises will be critical to the economy and to stock and bond prices. Federal Reserve officials say that the recent rise in inflation is primarily due to short-term factors, such as recovering energy prices and supply chain problems. But inflation might not be temporary. Prices of […]
Signs That Inflation is Set to Rise
Inflation is likely to rise quickly in the next few months, and that could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult situation much earlier than it anticipated. A number of inflation pressures are increasing. One example is rising demand for many goods and services as more vaccines are administered and economic activity increases. That puts […]
How Safe Is Your Money?
Credit Suisse recently report-ed a $4.7 billion loss from its dealings with one client, Archegos Capital Management. As a consequence, the bank slashed its dividend, reduced its share buybacks and announced key employees were leaving the firm. The Swiss bank was one of several global financial firms that suffered loss-es from its dealings with Archegos […]
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Warren Buffett
